Stubhub Falls 64% as Bearish Valuation Case Deepens
stubhub shares traded at $7.31 on April 29th, down roughly 64% since the company’s September 2025 IPO. The drop leaves the stock at 18.69 times forward earnings, while a bearish thesis argues the market is still pricing in too much growth. For investors, the debate is now about whether the current valuation already discounts the risks or still leaves room for another leg lower.
Valuation at 6.3x EBITDA
$7.31 is the latest trading price, and the bear case says that still implies about 6.3x 2026E EBITDA and about 4.0x 2027E EBITDA. exp_Loss, the Value Investors Club bearish thesis author, argues that those multiples reflect $425M to $472M of EBITDA for 2026 to 2027, levels the market may be too willing to accept.
64% is the size of the post-IPO decline, and it has not erased the valuation concern. The thesis points to a more conservative base case of about $310M of EBITDA in 2026 and about $390M in 2027, which would leave less room for the stock to justify its current price if operating trends fall short.
Stubhub faces four pressures
4 pressures frame the bearish view: moderating industry growth, regulatory scrutiny, competitive dynamics, and weaker marketing efficiency. The secondary ticketing market’s growth outlook has cooled after a post-COVID surge, while normalization in consumer demand and all-in pricing regulations are said to weigh on conversion and take rates.
BOTS Act enforcement and FTC actions could also constrain the ticket supply available to secondary platforms. Stubhub’s dependence on paid search for traffic acquisition adds a separate cost risk, and the thesis says there is evidence of declining incremental efficiency and margin compression. That leaves the company trying to grow while paying more for each customer and facing more pressure on pricing.
31 hedge fund portfolios
31 hedge fund portfolios held STUB at the end of the fourth quarter, up from 29 in the previous quarter. Even with that increase, Stubhub is not among the 40 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds, a gap that fits the bearish argument that sentiment has not turned uniformly constructive.
25% to 35% is the further downside the thesis implies from here if the market resets its expectations toward the lower EBITDA base case. For holders, the practical question is whether the stock can hold a price that already reflects a steep reset, or whether the next leg of trading simply brings valuation back toward the more conservative earnings path.
