Nasdaq Futures Flat as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Rise
Nasdaq futures were flat on Monday as traders weighed Iran-related tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The steadier tone in the tech-heavy contract came even as oil jumped and other US index futures slipped, leaving equity traders with a sharper geopolitical risk premium to digest.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped 0.4% and S&P 500 futures slipped 0.1% after reports that two Iranian strikes hit a US patrol boat and that a US warship was turned back in the Strait of Hormuz. The US denied those reports from Iranian media outlets, but the headlines still pushed Brent crude futures up over 3% to nearly $112 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate to almost $105.
Trump's Project Freedom
Donald Trump said the US would start helping trapped ships exit the key Gulf waterway on Monday, calling the plan Project Freedom. In a Sunday social media post, he wrote, "If, in any way, this Humanitarian process is interfered with, that interference will, unfortunately, have to be dealt with forcefully," adding another layer of pressure to an already tense market.
Iran warned it would take action against US ships, a direct complication for traders trying to price the risk around one of the world's most sensitive shipping lanes. That risk is showing up first in energy contracts, while Nasdaq 100 futures are holding flat rather than joining the broader selloff.
Oil at nearly $112
Brent at nearly $112 a barrel and WTI at almost $105 point to a market that is paying up for supply risk before the week fully opens. If the Strait of Hormuz remains the focus, the gap between energy prices and equity futures may keep widening even if the main US indexes avoid a bigger slide.
Friday brings the April US jobs report, with economists expecting 60,000 new positions and the unemployment rate projected to hold steady at 4.3%. The week also includes earnings from Lattice Semiconductor Corporation, Advanced Micro Devices, Arm Holdings, Palantir and Paramount Skydance, after the S&P 500 Index extended its streak on Friday to a fifth week of gains.
Friday's 60,000 jobs test
60,000 new positions is the near-term labor-market figure now sitting beside the Strait of Hormuz risk, and it gives traders two separate macro tests before the week ends. A flat Nasdaq 100 today leaves room for both the jobs data and the semiconductor earnings lineup to move the tape later in the week.
