Jesse Keenan says New Orleans relocation should start now
Jesse Keenan says new orleans has reached a point of no return, and he wants relocation planning to begin immediately. The Tulane University climate adaptation expert co-authored a study published in Nature Sustainability that says the city may be surrounded by the Gulf of Mexico before the end of this century.
Keenan called New Orleans “in a terminal condition” and said city, state and federal leaders should begin coordinated support for people moving away. He added, “In paleo-climate terms, New Orleans is gone; the question is how long it has,” and said the city’s days are “most likely decades rather than centuries.”
Nature Sustainability study
The paper links that warning to 3-7 metres of sea-level rise in southern Louisiana, along with strengthening hurricanes and the gradual subsidence of a coastline carved apart by the oil and gas industry. It says the region could lose three-quarters of its remaining coastal wetlands, while the shoreline could migrate as much as 100km inland.
The researchers describe southern Louisiana as the most physically vulnerable coastal zone in the world, comparing present warming with a period of similar heat 125,000 years ago. New Orleans has a population of about 360,000 people, making the study’s relocation warning a direct one for a large urban area already under pressure.
Katrina levees and upgrades
Billions of dollars have been spent to fortify New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina in 2005, but the study says the levees already require hefty upgrades to remain sufficient. That leaves the city with a choice between continued investment in defenses and a managed move away from land the paper says cannot stay above water in the long run.
“How long is not certain but it’s most likely decades rather than centuries. Even if you stopped climate change today, New Orleans’s days are still numbered. It will be surrounded by open water, and you can’t keep an island situated below sea level afloat. There’s no amount of money that can do that,” Keenan said.
New Orleans relocation planning
He said, “There is an opportunity for palliative care, we can transition people and the economy. We can get ahead of this.” The study’s practical message is that relocation planning should not wait for the shoreline to reach the city limit; it should begin while residents, businesses and public agencies still have room to move in an orderly way.
For New Orleans, the immediate question is not whether the pressures are real. The paper says they are already advanced enough to force planning now, and it puts city, state and federal leaders on the hook for deciding how to support people leaving a place the study says is entering its final chapter.
