Plaid Cymru projected to win 43 seats in final YouGov model
Plaid Cymru is projected to win 43 seats in YouGov's final model for the 2026 Senedd election, putting Rhun Iorwerth in pole position to be the next first minister. The forecast makes Plaid Cymru the largest party in the 96-member Welsh parliament, but still six seats short of the 49 needed for a majority.
The model places Reform UK second on 34 seats. It also projects Labour to fall to 12 members of the Senedd, a notional loss of 32 seats, while the Conservatives are reduced to four seats.
Rhun Iorwerth and Plaid Cymru
YouGov's latest model used data from more than 4,600 adults in Wales, with fieldwork running from 25 April to 4 May. It says Plaid Cymru made small gains late in the campaign, largely at the expense of the Greens, after a mid-April MRP had shown a neck-and-neck contest between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.
The projection gives Plaid Cymru a range from 36 seats to 48 seats. That still leaves the party short of a majority, even in its strongest outcome in the model.
Labour in Ceredigion Penfro
Labour do not finish first in any of the Senedd's 16 constituencies in the forecast. In Ceredigion Penfro, where Eluned Morgan is top of Labour's list of candidates, the model makes it a realistic possibility that the first minister will lose her seat.
The forecast says Labour are set to win zero out of six seats in four constituencies. That result would leave the party on 12 members and 32 seats down on a notional basis.
Reform UK and the smaller parties
Reform UK would emerge as the largest party in 13% of YouGov's simulations, despite sitting second on the median estimate with 34 seats. Its projected range runs from 31 seats to 41 seats, showing how much the final seat count could move under the D'Hondt system.
The Conservatives are projected to fall to four seats from a notional 26 in 2021, their worst result in a devolved election to date. Four seats would leave them short of the five needed to form a political group in the Senedd. The Liberal Democrats are projected to win one seat, which would leave Jane Dodds as their sole representative, while the Greens are projected to win their first representation in the Senedd.
The final model leaves Plaid Cymru ahead, but not with a majority. That means the first minister question and the shape of any post-election arrangement will turn on the final seat count rather than just the headline leader.
