Denis Shapovalov Draws +168 Value Against Mariano Navone

denis shapovalov is being priced as an underdog against Mariano Navone at the Italian Open on Thursday, but Dimers says the market is too harsh. Its simulator flagged value on Shapovalov across the moneyline and set-related bets while sportsbooks made Navone a heavy -189 favorite.

Shapovalov’s +168 Moneyline

Dimers Pro gave Shapovalov a 42.6% win probability on the moneyline at +168 with DraftKings Sportsbook, calling it a 5.3% edge. That is the cleanest read in the matchup: the model sees a better chance for Shapovalov than the price implies, while the books have Navone as the side to beat.

The same projection also pointed to Shapovalov +3.5 games at -126 with FanDuel. Dimers gave that market a 60.1% probability and said it carried a 4.4% edge, which gives bettors another way to play the same matchup without needing Shapovalov to win outright.

Navone’s Price and the Total

For the first set, Dimers priced Shapovalov at 45.9% to win at +130 with bet365 and labeled that a 2.4% edge. The model’s numbers spread the value across multiple markets instead of leaning on one isolated angle.

Dimers also listed the over 21.5 games at 56% probability, but said -128 on FanDuel produced a negative 0.2% edge. That leaves the total as the least attractive of the listed options, even though the match itself was framed as a betting-market discrepancy.

Multiple Books, One Edge

Dimers said its tennis simulator scanned every major book in real time, then singled out Shapovalov as the underdog value play against a Navone side that had been on a tear. For bettors, the practical takeaway is straightforward: the best prices in this match were split across DraftKings, FanDuel and bet365, and the strongest edge sat with Shapovalov on the moneyline at +168.