Caty Mcnally to Take a Set From Swiatek at 2026 Italian Open

caty mcnally is backed to take a set off Iga Swiatek at the 2026 Italian Open on Friday, May 8. The matchup comes at the final big clay tournament before the French Open, and the betting case leans on Swiatek’s uneven 2026 form. McNally has already shown enough on clay this spring to make the price hard to ignore.

Swiatek’s 2026 Clay Slippage

Swiatek has not looked like the player who usually turns clay into a long winning stretch. She lost in the Round of 64 at the Miami Open, fell in the quarter-finals at the Stuttgart Open and exited in the Round of 32 at the Madrid Open.

That run gives McNally a real opening in a match that is being priced around one set, not an upset outright. Blake Krass backed her to take one set off Swiatek at +225, saying, “I am backing her to take one set off Swiatek in this match.” He added, “At +225, it’s hard to pass up, given Swiatek’s current struggles.”

McNally’s Clay Results

McNally’s recent clay work is the reason the matchup has legs. She won the WTA 500 Charleston Open doubles title on clay a few weeks before the match date, then reached the Round of 16 at the Madrid Open.

In Madrid, she upset Victoria Mboko in the second round before Marta Kostyuk ended her run. Kostyuk also knocked her out of the Open de Rouen, and then went on to win both Madrid and Rouen. McNally has already shown she can survive a clay draw against a player carrying form.

Wimbledon Rematch Feel

The last time the two met came at Wimbledon in 2025, when McNally stole the first set before Swiatek won the match. That result fits the current betting angle: McNally does not need a full breakthrough to pay off, just another set in a place where Swiatek has not been at her sharpest this season.

For anyone tracking the Italian Open as the last major tune-up before Paris, the key number is the set price, not a straight matchline. McNally has the recent clay results to support it, and Swiatek’s 2026 results have already opened the door.