Nate Erskine Smith Faces Scarborough Southwest Nomination Vote

Nate Erskine-Smith is seeking the Ontario Liberal Party nomination in Scarborough Southwest, where four candidates are competing for the right to carry the party into a future by-election. On Thursday, he pressed residents on whether they knew Saturday’s vote was coming, a sign of how local turnout and organization now sit at the center of his next political step.

At a small grey house, he asked two men, "There’s a vote on Saturday. Are you guys aware of the vote?" One man backed Ahsanul Hafiz, one of Erskine-Smith’s main rivals, and Erskine-Smith replied, "No idea what they signed up for," after hearing that choice.

Scarborough Southwest vote

Members had to register in advance, and the party said more than 3,500 people were on the final voting list. They will mark their choices on a ranked ballot and vote in person at a local high school. The contest is for a riding that became vacant in February, when former Ontario NDP deputy leader Doly Begum quit to run for the federal Liberals.

The result matters beyond the local race because Erskine-Smith has tied becoming the Scarborough Southwest candidate to a larger bid for Ontario Liberal leadership. The nomination race could also shape who carries the party’s banner in a future by-election.

Mark Carney backs Erskine-Smith

Prime Minister Mark Carney posted a video on Instagram late Friday supporting Erskine-Smith. In it, Carney said, "It hurts in some respects you’re going, but I understand it, because you’re going to be more on the ground - working at the provincial level, working for the folks, I hope, in Scarborough, in health care and education, making lives better, helping to grow that economy, and we’ll be right there alongside,"

Ontario Liberal strategist Dan Moulton said, "It will either be the start of his very compelling campaign, or a very quick end to it." Erskine-Smith has said he wants to change and rebuild the Ontario Liberal Party after three election losses to Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives since 2018.

Erskine-Smith’s leadership path

The Scarborough Southwest race now functions as a test of both local support and party reach. With four candidates on the ballot, a ranked vote, and more than 3,500 members eligible to choose, the contest will show whether Erskine-Smith can turn a riding race into a broader provincial launch.