El Niño–southern Oscillation models point to record-strength 2025 surge
Seasonal models are now pointing to an el niño–southern oscillation pattern that could become the strongest on record, with development expected from the middle of this year. The World Meteorological Organization says the warming Pacific signal could alter global temperature and rainfall patterns.
Jeff Berardelli, WFLA-TV chief meteorologist and climate specialist, said Friday: “I think we’re going to see weather events that we’ve never seen in modern history before,” and said El Nino redistributes heat on Earth. He said stronger El Nino conditions can bring stronger heat waves, worsening drought in some areas, and more intense floods in others.
World Meteorological Organization Forecast
The World Meteorological Organization said the event could affect global temperature and rainfall patterns, while also cautioning that spring forecasts are harder to make accurately. Wilfran Moufouma Okia, the organization’s chief of climate prediction, said there is high confidence in the onset of El Nino, followed by further intensification in the months to follow.
The subsurface heat in the Pacific is already moving east across the ocean and rising from deep waters, and the World Meteorological Organization’s Global Seasonal Climate Update showed sea-surface temperatures are rising rapidly. El Nino typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months, and the strongest events are called super El Ninos.
Daniel Swain On Pacific Heat
Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the California Institute for Water Resources, said Friday: “One of the key building blocks to make it fully materialize is, in fact, occurring,” and added, “We still don’t know exactly what’s going to happen. It’s not guaranteed it’ll be a super El Nino. But the potential is there for something genuinely remarkable.” He said the volume and intensity of the subsurface warm water anomalies are about as large as seen in the historical record.
Berardelli said El Nino subdues the Atlantic hurricane season, and said places like the Caribbean will be extra dry this summer and likely have fewer tropical systems. For readers in drought-prone areas, flood-prone areas, and the Caribbean, the practical signal is that the forecast has shifted toward a stronger Pacific driver that can tilt seasonal weather well beyond the equatorial Pacific.
The next step is the middle-of-year onset window, when forecasters will learn whether the warming continues into a full El Nino and how quickly it intensifies.
