Australia Unemployment Rate Jumps to 4.5 Per Cent in April
Australia’s unemployment rate jumped to 4.5 per cent in April as 18,600 jobs dropped out of the economy, a shift that could cool pressure on the Reserve Bank to tighten again in June. The labour-market report landed above economists’ 4.3 per cent expectation and against forecasts for 15,000 job gains.
Sean Crick, head of labour statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics, said: “Compared to what we usually see in April, more people remained unemployed this month,” after the figures were released on Thursday. The number of unemployed people rose by 33,000, a move that left households and jobseekers facing a weaker hiring backdrop than markets had been pricing in.
Reserve Bank June pressure eases
4.5 per cent unemployment also sits above the Reserve Bank’s earlier May forecast that the rate would average 4.2 per cent in the June quarter. That gap matters because money markets had been pricing only about a 15 per cent chance of a hike at the next Reserve Bank meeting in June, while fully pricing in one rate rise by November.
Anders Magnusson, BDO chief economist, said: “This will provide some comfort to the Reserve Bank that demand in the economy is starting to soften.” He added: “While the drop in employment provides some comfort, an increase in hours worked suggests a nuanced story where the labour market is not cooling as quickly as the headline figures imply.”
Hours worked rose 15.8 million
15.8 million additional hours worked in April complicated the drop in jobs, and hours worked per person rose by 0.9 per cent. That meant fewer people were employed, but those still in work were collectively logging more time, a split that can keep labour demand from looking as weak as the job-count alone suggests.
0.1 percentage points was the size of the decline in the participation rate, which fell to 66.7 per cent. Female employment also weakened, with 19,000 full-time roles and 13,000 part-time roles lost in the month, adding a second layer of softness beneath the headline unemployment rate.
Commonwealth Bank shifts forecasts
1.9 per cent became 1.6 per cent in Commonwealth Bank’s downgraded growth forecast for the end of 2026, while its peak unemployment forecast rose from 4.4 per cent to 4.6 per cent. The bank’s revised view suggests the labour market may carry more slack than expected if growth slows further, even as the Reserve Bank remains focused on inflation.
4.5 per cent unemployment, 18,600 jobs lost, and a softer participation rate leave the June policy debate leaning on fresh data rather than assumptions. Amanda Rishworth said: “The figures demonstrate the ongoing resilience of the Australian labour market, because despite the uptick in the unemployment rate, it remains low by historical standards,” but the next read on the labour market will need to show whether April was a wobble or the start of a slower run.
