Alex Moore Backs 3.9% 2027 Social Security Cola Projection
The 2027 social security cola projection has risen to 3.9%, according to the Senior Citizens League. Alex Moore, the group’s statistician, said the estimate had moved up quite a bit from earlier in the year. A 3.9% increase would add $80.77 to the average retired worker’s monthly benefit.
Alex Moore and the 3.9% estimate
As of January, the average retired worker received $2,071 a month. Under the league’s estimate, that check would rise to about $2,152. Moore said in an email to CBS News: “This is up quite a bit from earlier in the year, when our projection generally sat between 2% and 3%”.
Moore also warned that rising oil prices could push inflation higher. “As we go throughout the year, rising oil prices have the potential to worsen the situation,” he said. “Higher energy prices make it more expensive to farm crops, transport goods and services, and even operate the machinery to produce goods in factories.”
July Through September
The 2027 adjustment will be based on inflation from July through September. That backward-looking formula leaves the final number exposed to price moves before and after that window, which the Senior Citizens League said can leave seniors behind if prices rise sharply outside it.
The group said Social Security benefits have lost almost 14% of their value over the last decade. It also said seniors received a 2026 COLA of 2.8%, while the Consumer Price Index rose at an annual rate of 3.3% in March and 3.8% in April.
Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget forecast a 2027 COLA of 3.8% on Tuesday and said the range could run from 3% to 4.5% depending on inflation over the next several months. A higher COLA would worsen Social Security’s shortfall by roughly $300 billion over the next decade, and the group said it would advance the insolvency of the old-age trust fund by three months from late 2032 to earlier in the year.
The Social Security COLA for 2027 will not be set until October, so the projection now gives retirees an early estimate rather than a final figure. For readers, the near-term number to watch is the monthly benefit change, with the current estimate pointing to a gain of about $80.77 if the forecast holds.
