Judge Leads 34% Mlb Home Run Leaders Market Over Schwarber
Aaron Judge sits atop the mlb home run leaders market at 34% as of April 15, with Kyle Schwarber closing to 28% and Shohei Ohtani at 19%. The numbers leave a compact race early in the season, even with Judge already carrying the favorite tag.
Jordan Walker led the league with eight home runs, while Brandon Lowe had seven. Judge, Schwarber, CJ Abrams, Gunnar Henderson and Yordan Alvarez were grouped on six, a tight pack that keeps the market from separating cleanly after the first wave of production.
Judge Holds The Edge
Judge’s lead is real, but it is not wide. He was installed at 34%, Schwarber surged 13 percentage points to 28%, and Ohtani stood at 19%, leaving the top three separated by 15 percentage points or less.
That spread matches the early home run board, where one swing can move a hitter from the pack into the lead. Walker’s eight and Lowe’s seven give the race a short-term target, while the six-homer group sits close enough to pressure any favorite if the pace stays hot.
Schwarber And Ohtani Close In
Schwarber’s rise is the sharpest move in the market. His jump to 28% cut directly into Judge’s cushion and pushed Ohtani into a distant third at 19%.
Judge still brings the strongest power profile in the group. He led the American League in home runs in 2022 with 62 and again in 2024 with 58, while also leading the league in runs, RBIs and walks across multiple seasons. He also missed 56 games in 2023, which makes his seasonal volume harder to forecast than a pure power total would suggest.
Judge’s Recent Power Profile
The market is leaning on more than raw home-run totals. Judge led the American League in runs in 2023 and 2024 with 133 and 137, in RBIs with 131 and 144, and in walks in 2022, 2023 and 2024 with 111, 133 and 124.
His contact batting averages over the last two seasons were.464 and.470, with an average hit rate of 2.078. He also posted a lowest RBI rate in six years at 15.1%, and came to the plate with 59 fewer runners on base in 2025 than in 2024, with 471 runners on base. Those numbers show why Judge remains the favorite, but they also show why the race can tighten fast if the early leaderboard keeps shifting.
For readers tracking the market, the practical read is simple: Judge still leads, Schwarber has narrowed the gap, and Ohtani remains within striking distance. The early standings put real pressure on every at-bat, and the current board leaves little room for a long cold stretch from any of the three.
