Grasshopper's bureau of meteorology winter forecast says a strong El Niño is developing just as the Australian snow season nears, with the outlook updated in late May about 10 days before the official start. A system is expected to roll through the Aussie Alps over the end of the coming weekend, bringing small amounts of snow and colder temperatures for snowmaking.
Grasshopper May update
Grasshopper said, "a strong El Niño is developing which has the potential to throw a spanner in our dreams of a deep Australian winter". The forecaster also said, "we are heading towards an El Niño event this year".
That outlook sits alongside NOAA's estimates of an 82% chance of an El Niño event to emerge in May-July and a 96% chance of El Niño conditions in December-February. Grasshopper said there is potential for a strong to very strong El Niño event to manifest.
Aussie Alps this week
The first system is expected to drop small amounts of snow, while the colder air should give resorts a foothold with snowmaking operations. A low is expected to deepen to the southwest of Australia late in the weekend and reach the mountains from around Tuesday.
Some models show the low becoming quite deep. If that happens, it could bring strong winds to southern regions of Australia and a better chance of snow across the Alps next week, though temperatures may stay marginal for snowfall below higher elevations early in the season.
2015 Spencer's Creek
Grasshopper compared the current setup with 2015, when a strong El Niño event developed alongside a positive IOD event. Spencer's Creek reached a peak depth of 150cm that season, giving the forecaster a recent reference point for what a strong El Niño can look like in the Australian winter.
For readers planning around the opening weeks of the season, the immediate practical read is simple: the next weather window offers only a small natural snowfall chance, but it also offers the colder temperatures resorts need to start snowmaking while the stronger low tracks toward the mountains.
