Royals Vs Reds: Avila starts as both clubs limp into Cincinnati
The royals vs reds matchup lands in Cincinnati with both clubs carrying May baggage, and Kansas City brings a 22-37 record into Great American Ball Park. The Royals dropped 18 of 28 in May, while the Reds enter at 30-28 after a rough stretch that knocked them off their early lead.
Great American Ball Park sets the tone
Luinder Avila is scheduled to start for the Royals on Monday, even though he is not ramped up to make a full start. That leaves Kansas City trying to navigate the game with a pitcher whose workload is limited before the first pitch is even thrown.
Cincinnati counters with Chase Burns, and the numbers show why this series has the feel of a correction test for both lineups. The Royals are scoring 3.75 runs per game, 29th in MLB, and allowing 4.75, which ranks 22nd. The Reds are better offensively at 4.41 runs per game, 14th in MLB, but they have allowed 4.97, 25th in the league.
Reds search for answers
The Reds were first in the National League Central after a 20-11 start by the end of April, then lost 17 of 27 games and kept only series wins against the Astros, Phillies, and Mets. They also have a home split worth watching at Great American Ball Park, where they have hit 43 of their 72 home runs but are batting.224.
Elly de la Cruz is out with a hamstring strain, and Edwin Arroyo will be called up to replace him. Arroyo reached.323/.383/.562 with 11 home runs in 53 Triple-A games and arrives as the Reds’ No. 3 prospect in the MLB Pipeline system, giving Cincinnati a different look at shortstop while one of its most dynamic bats sits on the injured list.
Pitching and power swings
Burns has held opponents to two runs or fewer in 10 of his 11 starts this year, and his slider has been especially difficult to square up: opponents are hitting.137 against it with a 53 percent whiff rate. He also owns the 10th-highest strikeout rate among starters and brings a 98 mph fastball into a matchup that has become less about reputation than execution.
Andrew Abbott’s May was sharper from a run-prevention standpoint, with just four earned runs in 28 innings, a 1.29 ERA and three wins. The home split is less tidy, though, because he has a 5.28 ERA in six home starts and has allowed five home runs there, a reminder that Cincinnati’s park can turn a clean month into a mess fast.
The Reds’ bullpen adds another layer. Their relievers carry a 4.98 ERA, fourth-worst in baseball, closer Emilio Pagán is on the injured list, and Tony Santillan was lifted from a save chance yesterday after struggling to finish the inning. Brandon Leibrandt was called up today, and the family name fits the setting: he is the son of Charlie Leibrandt, who pitched for both the Reds and Royals.
Kansas City also knows this building well. In its last visit to Cincinnati in 2024, the Royals swept the Reds and outscored them 28-3, so a series between two clubs short on answers now starts with one team trying to survive a limited opener and the other trying to stop a slide before the pressure tightens further.
