National Hurricane Center raises tropical disturbance to 50% chance

The national hurricane center said Monday that a weather disturbance over northeastern Mexico has a 50% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next week. The system remained inland at 1 p.m., limiting development for now. Forecasters said it could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf late Tuesday or Wednesday.

That same update put the chance of cyclone formation at 40% over the next 48 hours and 50% over the next seven days. Meteorologists said the system could briefly strengthen into a short-lived tropical storm between Wednesday and Thursday if it gets back over water.

Texas and Gulf Coast alerts

Officials urged residents and interests across southern and eastern Texas, portions of Louisiana, and Mississippi to prepare for heavy weather. Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings may be required as early as Tuesday, and southeast Texas remained under a Flood Watch through Thursday.

The system is expected to bring periods of intense rainfall over the next several days, with the potential for widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible along parts of the northwestern Gulf Coast.

Monday's forecast update

The National Hurricane Center's Monday update is the main change for readers watching the Gulf: the disturbance now has a quantified path to organize after it leaves land, and the forecast window starts tightening around Tuesday through Thursday. For people in the watch area, the practical step is to track local alerts closely and be ready for flood-related notices before the storm reaches the coast.