BettingPros backs Cubs over 5.5 and Athletics at -122 — Dodgers Vs Rays
BettingPros used its Monday MLB picks to point to two prices on a 10-game slate: the Cubs team total over 5.5 runs at +104 and the Athletics moneyline at -122. The slate started at 6:40 p.m. ET, and the two picks leaned on pitching matchups, bullpen numbers and recent form.
Cubs Against Lorenzen
The Cubs over rested heavily on Michael Lorenzen’s numbers. He was 112th in ERA among 112 pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched in 2026, posting a 7.54 ERA and a 5.67 xERA, while his 4.36 xFIP and 4.46 SIERA offered a smaller gap than the surface results but still pointed to trouble.
Since last season, Lorenzen allowed a.387 wOBA to 461 left-handed batters and a.342 wOBA to 465 right-handed batters. Colorado’s relievers were 29th in ERA at 5.21, and the weather was projected to be in the 70s with wind blowing out for the Cubs game.
Chicago’s lineup numbers backed the play. Six of the projected starters had recorded at least a 110 wRC+ against right-handed pitching since 2024, five had reached at least 116, and three had hit at least 126.
Athletics With J.T. Ginn
The Athletics moneyline at -122 came from a narrower edge, but one with more recent form behind it. J.T. Ginn carried a 3.15 ERA, 3.82 xERA, 4.05 xFIP and 4.20 SIERA across 15 appearances, including 12 starts and 71.1 innings in 2026.
That profile lined up against Jared Jones, who had a 4.73 ERA, 5.24 xERA, 4.00 xFIP and 3.93 SIERA in three starts for the Pirates. The bullpen numbers stayed close, with Pittsburgh at 20th in ERA at 4.53 and the Athletics at 25th at 4.80.
The recent offense split the matchup further. The Athletics were tied for ninth in wRC+ at 103 over the previous 30 days, while the Pirates were 27th at 80. Seven of the Athletics’ projected starters had posted at least a 100 wRC+ against righties since 2024, and four had reached at least 114.
Shepardson’s picks gave bettors two different ways into Monday’s slate: one based on a Cubs lineup facing a struggling starter and soft relief behind him, the other built on Oakland’s recent batting form and a better-looking starting pitching edge. The Pirates also entered without Oneil Cruz and Konnor Griffin, leaving less room for lineup depth to cover the gap.
For bettors, the useful part is the split in approach. The Cubs play attacked a total, while the Athletics play backed a side, and both came with specific matchup numbers rather than broad season trends.
