Mojtaba Khamenei Faces 430% Cooking Oil Surge in Iran
mojtaba khamenei is now the figure at the center of an economy that is showing the cost of the U.S.-Israeli war in the price of dinner. Iran's own data show cooking oil up 430% from a year ago, with egg, rice and milk prices also surging as households face a deeper squeeze.
The price gains are blunt: eggs are up 345%, rice 287% and milk 139% from a year earlier. Iran has estimated the war inflicted $270 billion in damage, and the International Monetary Fund expects the economy to contract by 6.1% this year.
Tehran Prices and Household Strain
Javad Rahimpour, an Iran-based economist, said the economic pain is widespread even if street protests are not yet breaking out. “The conditions for protests may not currently exist,” he said, adding, “But that should not lead us to think there is some kind of convergence between the state and the people.”
A Tehran resident gave the strain a household face earlier this month, saying, “We have all become poor,” and, “Those of us who were once middle-class, or a little above it, are now financially destitute.” The same resident said he had sold furniture, appliances, carpets and other household items to survive, while his phone and electricity bills had jumped fivefold.
Oil Revenue and Imports
The pressure on prices sits beside a tighter financial bind. The U.S. naval blockade cut off oil revenue for Iran, and Capital Economics estimated in April that Iran's foreign exchange reserves were only enough for three months' worth of imports at prewar levels.
That leaves Tehran with less room to absorb food inflation or stabilize the currency. The government employee who spoke last week said he exhausts his pay by the middle of the month and must buy groceries on credit, adding, “Everybody is angry over the economy, and if the government doesn’t fix things, there will be trouble.”
What Tehran Faces Next
The United Nations warned that 4.1 million more Iranians could drop below the international poverty line. Dennis Ross, a former U.S. diplomat, wrote that even with aid, Tehran's ability to manage its domestic woes will remain limited and that internal pressures will build, possibly producing what Khamenei greatly feared: an Iranian Gorbachev who would prioritize domestic development, reach out to the public and end confrontation with the outside world as organizing principles.
The immediate test is whether the government can slow food inflation before the strain reaches the point Rahimpour described. For households buying oil, eggs, rice and milk at these levels, the daily bill has become the clearest sign of how much the war has narrowed Tehran's room to maneuver.
