Andy Burnham Leads Makerfield By Election Odds Ahead of Thursday Vote
Andy Burnham leads the makerfield by election odds as candidates make their final pitch before Thursday’s poll. The Labour candidate and Greater Manchester Mayor is expected to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the party leadership if he wins the seat and returns to Westminster.
The by-election has been built around that possibility, with Sir Keir saying a leadership contest would be a “bad” thing for the country and adding, “I hope he wins the by-election and he'll play a big part in the Labour government.” Josh Simons resigned as Makerfield MP to clear the way for Burnham’s attempt to win the seat.
Burnham and Kenyon
Burnham faces Robert Kenyon, Reform UK’s candidate and a plumber and local councillor. Kenyon finished second in the constituency at the 2024 general election, and the few opinion polls conducted there so far suggest Burnham is leading, although the race is expected to be tight.
Kenyon has also sought to frame himself against the established parties. He told the ’s Chris Mason he was not a “career politician” and said people would “feel listened to” if he became the MP.
Farage in Makerfield
Nigel Farage has been knocking on doors in the constituency in support of Reform UK’s candidate during the four-week campaign. Reform won all seats in the area in recent local elections, giving Kenyon’s party a local result to point to as it tries to close the gap in the by-election.
Kenyon has faced criticism over past social media posts about Brexit, abortion and Ukraine. That has left the contest shaped not only by Burnham’s profile, but also by what voters make of Reform’s candidate and the local record the party is trying to build on.
Restore Britain in Makerfield
Restore Britain is fighting its first by-election in Makerfield and has been polling a distant third, ahead of the Conservatives, Greens and Liberal Democrats. Rebecca Shepherd, the party’s candidate, has promised to “put Makerfield first” and has set out national priorities including “reversing mass immigration” and “rewarding British workers.”
Michael Winstanley, the Conservative candidate, has promised to “regenerate high streets” and “reduce road congestion.” Jake Austin, the Liberal Democrat candidate, has described his party’s offer as a “sensible alternative,” while Sarah Wakefield is standing for the Greens.
The vote on Thursday decides more than a single Westminster seat: if Burnham wins, the Labour leadership question moves from speculation to a live challenge. If he falls short, Starmer’s position is spared that immediate test, and Reform’s effort to turn local gains into a parliamentary breakthrough gets a different measure of scrutiny.
