El Niño–southern Oscillation strengthens as Australia watches prices
El Niño has officially arrived in the tropical Pacific, and the Bureau of Meteorology said this week the el niño–southern oscillation is already underway. Weatherzone forecasts suggest it will strengthen through winter and spring 2026, with some models pointing to a peak among the highest observed since 1950.
For Australia, the immediate concern is not just weather. Parts of southern and eastern Australia are forecast to receive less rainfall than usual between July and September 2026, and warmer, drier conditions could threaten water storage, lift bushfire risk, and press the agricultural sector.
Bureau of Meteorology and Weatherzone
The Bureau of Meteorology’s assessment this week put the tropical Pacific on notice early, before the strongest conditions arrive. That timing matters for farmers, water managers, and households that follow seasonal forecasts closely, because the current signal points to a stronger event building through winter and spring rather than a short-lived shift.
Weatherzone’s forecast goes further, saying some models place this El Niño among the highest observed since 1950. Australia has seen this pattern before: during the last El Niño in 2023-24, the country experienced its driest August to October period on record.
Rabobank and supermarket prices
Stefan Vogel, head of research at Rabobank, said the market impact is not automatic. “It isn’t a certainty yet that it will really bring dryness, and that it will reduce crops.”
He added: “And it for sure is not yet a certainty that supermarket prices will be impacted.” Vogel said the stronger risk may be felt first in fresh produce. “Where you may see an impact a bit more profound or quicker could be in the fresh produce sector, so all the fruits and vegetables.”
Vogel also said cattle, sheep and grain farmers may not feel the effects as keenly. In his view, a strong El Niño does not guarantee damage in every growing region, even if the overall signal points toward hotter and drier weather.
Fresh produce and Iran pressure
That caution leaves a practical split for readers. The broad seasonal forecast points to pressure on water storage and bushfire conditions, but the clearest early commercial exposure sits with fruits and vegetables rather than a guaranteed surge at the checkout.
Vogel said, “It is something everyday Australians definitely, I think, want to keep an eye on.” Farmers are also watching the added pressure from Iran, where the conflict began in February when the United States and Israel launched massive joint airstrikes on Iran. That conflict has driven petrol prices higher and disrupted international shipping through the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, adding another cost layer for producers already tracking the weather.
