insiders Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan labeled Byron Buxton the No. 2 trade deadline candidate this summer and assigned him a 40% chance of being moved. Buxton, 32, is under contract through 2028, which makes his placement on an early trade big board notable for clubs weighing long-term deals.
Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan
Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan put the 40% figure on Buxton’s odds as part of an early look at deadline movers this summer. That assessment places Buxton behind only one other asset on their list and frames him as a realistic, if not probable, trade target for buyers pursuing outfield power.
Byron Buxton's 23 Home Runs
Buxton has 23 home runs and is slashing.275/.336/.601 this season, trailing Kyle Schwarber by only two homers. At 32, he carries All-Star, Gold Glove and Silver Slugger credentials and is producing the kind of power output teams prize at the deadline.
Phillies as Potential Destination
The write-up singles out the Phillies as a clear fit, saying Buxton would probably be the best player Philadelphia could get this summer if he would waive a no-trade clause to come to Philly. That condition is the practical hinge: a trade requires the player’s approval when a clause exists.
Forty percent, in plain terms, signals meaningful interest without projecting certainty. Teams that would pursue Buxton must weigh acquiring a top-tier bat against absorbing a contract that runs through 2028; those two facts together explain why a move is plausible but not a foregone conclusion.
Two structural realities narrow the market: Buxton’s multi-year deal and his no-trade protection. A club must both value multi-year outfield power and secure permission to include Buxton in a deal, which is why the scenario most commonly sketched involves a willing buyer and a player willing to waive his clause.
How likely is a trade before the deadline? The best available answer is the figure used here: 40%—not odds that mandate action, but high enough that sellers and buyers should be actively planning for the possibility this summer.
Would Byron Buxton waive his no-trade clause to join the Phillies?
