Mark Carney is facing fresh uncertainty around North American trade after Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he would rather not have the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement in place. Trump said in France that the United States would do better without it and added that he viewed it as possibly expiring immediately.
That puts a July 1 review point back in focus. Christopher Sands, the director of Johns Hopkins University’s Center for Canadian Studies, called the date a milestone, not a deadline, and said each country will indicate whether it is prepared to renew the agreement for 16 more years, withdraw entirely, or do neither.
Trump’s France remarks
Trump told reporters in France, “We do better without that agreement.” When asked to clarify, he said, “I would rather not have the agreement but I may sign it.” When pushed further on whether he intended to pull the United States out of the pact or leave it to be reviewed annually, he said, “I view it as possibly expiring immediately.”
He also said he would rather leave it unsigned or have it terminated. The agreement remains in place unless one of the countries gives six months’ notice that it is pulling out, so Trump’s remarks pointed to a possible break with the deal’s current structure rather than a routine review.
Christopher Sands on July 1
Sands described the July 1 date “like the moment in a poker game where the players lay their cards on the table.” He said, “Withdrawal is the only option that is unilateral, and renewal requires unanimous agreement.”
By that point, Canada and Mexico will already have called for a 16-year extension to keep the agreement in place. The United States can still choose a different path, but under the deal’s structure, one country cannot force a renewal alone.
Jamieson Greer’s trade view
Jamieson Greer said there are “pillars” of the continental trade pact that work well, and he said he would be open to two separate bilateral agreements. That leaves open a different route from the current three-country arrangement if the United States decides not to keep the existing pact intact.
For Canada and Mexico, the practical takeaway is that the agreement still governs trade unless withdrawal is triggered. Mark Carney and other leaders now have to read Trump’s comments alongside the formal review process, with July 1 set to show whether the United States wants renewal, withdrawal, or neither.
