Andy Burnham could use a general election to seek his own mandate if he wins back a place in the Commons through the Makerfield by-election on Thursday and then challenges Keir Starmer for Labour’s leadership. That prospect has put Labour’s current numbers and Reform’s readiness under the same spotlight.
The calculation is simple enough. Two hypotheticals involving Burnham give Labour a slim lead, and in a multi-party system that can translate into a slim majority or the largest party in a hung parliament. Burnham has also dismissed the 2024 manifesto as unworkable in government, which would give him room to campaign on a different offer.
Makerfield by-election on Thursday
Makerfield is the immediate test. Burnham is linked to a return to the Commons through the by-election this Thursday, and that route matters because Burnham supporters would need MPs to put him in Downing Street before any early election could follow.
He would also need to avoid looking as if his first move was to send MPs into another contest. The article says Burnham would not want them to think his first order of duty was to march them towards the guns.
Labour's 160-odd seats
Any early election would sit awkwardly beside Labour’s nominal majority of 160-odd. Prime ministers usually call early elections when they think they can extend slim or non-existing majorities, not when they already hold room to govern. That is why a Burnham-led push would be unusual even if it offered him a personal mandate.
The article also sets out the historical warning Burnham would have in mind. Gordon Brown was seen as a bottler after he did not call an election when he had his best chance, while James Callaghan led voters to the church and jilted them at the altar in 1978, wasting his chance to see off Margaret Thatcher before the Winter of Discontent.
Nigel Farage and Reform
An autumn election could land differently for Nigel Farage and Reform. The article says 24 of the 25 wards in Makerfield went to Reform at last month’s local election, but an autumn national contest would catch Farage on the hop. Reform’s candidates would be unselected, and its plans for government would be far from finalised.
That leaves Farage’s momentum exposed to timing. The article says a victory for a left-wing alliance would still count as a setback even if Reform emerged as the largest party, and that Farage’s career would have reached its turning point and failed to turn if an early election proved disastrous for Reform.
So the practical question is not only whether Burnham can return to the Commons, but whether he would actually use that route to force a general election. If he does, Labour could benefit from a fresh mandate; if he does not, Reform gets more time to finish its candidate selection and put its plans in order.
