Jacob Fearnley may not be on court, but the number that matters here is clear: Arthur Fery carries a 77% chance of beating Roman Andres Burruchaga in Tuesday’s round-of-32 match at the 2026 ATP Eastbourne tournament. The market has Fery short at $1.20, while Burruchaga sits at $4.50.
Fery and Burruchaga at ATP Eastbourne
Stats Insider ran the Burruchaga-Fery men’s singles match through 10,000 simulations and landed on Fery as the likelier winner. That model edge is the core of the preview, with the match scheduled to start at 11:30pm AEST. For readers watching the numbers rather than the names, the practical takeaway is simple: the forecast leans one way, and the price board leans another.
Fery is also listed at $1.33 to win the first set, compared with Burruchaga at $3.40. Those opening-set prices sit alongside the straight match odds, giving bettors two different entry points into the same matchup at the ATP Eastbourne stage.
Stats Insider and TAB
The contradiction is the story. Stats Insider’s model says Fery is more likely to win, yet its preferred betting option is Burruchaga to win because of the edge it sees when comparing its data-led probabilities with the odds currently being offered. At the same time, its recommended bet is Fery at $1.90, which keeps the advice split between the match result and the market price.
That leaves the reader with a narrow decision before Tuesday’s 11:30pm AEST start: follow the model’s 77% view on Fery, or weigh the value case implied by the prices on offer through TAB. Roman Andres Burruchaga and Arthur Fery head into the round of 32 with the numbers already telling two different stories.
