Turkey could finish bottom of the England World Cup group even if it ends level on three points with Australia or Paraguay. FIFA’s 2026 format change makes that possible in Group D because head-to-head results come before goal difference, and Turkey has already lost to both of those teams.
The United States will finish top of Group D, having beaten Australia and Paraguay. That leaves Turkey stuck below them despite the odd chance that its record could compare well with a team sitting above it in the old-style reading of a table.
FIFA's 2026 group rules
FIFA has expanded the World Cup to 48 teams from 2026 and set 12 groups of four teams each. Two teams qualify automatically from each group, and the eight best third-placed nations also move on to the knockout stage.
The order inside each group starts with points gained in matches between the teams concerned. That head-to-head step now sits ahead of goal difference, which is why a team can be out of direct contention on paper while still carrying a better overall return than a rival in another row of the table.
Turkey, Paraguay and Australia
That is the trap for Turkey in Group D. It can still draw level on three points with Australia or Paraguay, but it cannot move above either side on head-to-head because it lost to both.
Vincenzo Montella will be desperate for his players to return home from this World Cup, because the table leaves no room for a rescue through goal difference if the direct results are against them. The United States and Turkey meet on Thursday in Los Angeles, with Group D positions already decided around that fixture.
World Cup 2002 comparison
The same sort of sorting problem has appeared before in older tournament formats. In World Cup 2002, Croatia and Ecuador both finished on three points in Group G, and Croatia were ranked ahead under the goal-difference-first rule then in use.
Under the 2026 rules, Ecuador would be ranked ahead of Croatia in that same scenario. The 1998 World Cup offers another clue to how this new structure changes the race: it was a 32-team tournament, did not feature third-placed sides going through, and if it had, the sides would have been ranked seventh of the eight third-placed sides.
For Turkey, the practical effect is blunt. A team can reach three points and still be trapped behind the sides it lost to, even while the wider third-place table rewards overall results and keeps the knockout path open for the eight best third-placed nations.
