World Cup tables will look different in 2026, and Turkey are set to finish bottom of Group D before they even meet The United States on Thursday in Los Angeles. Under FIFA's new head-to-head rule, Vincenzo Montella's side can still reach three points, but that is not enough to climb above Australia or Paraguay.
FIFA's new Group D math
FIFA moved to a 48-team World Cup from 2026 after first planning 16 groups of three countries with two sides advancing from each one. It later confirmed a 12-group format of four teams, with two teams qualifying automatically and the eight best third-placed nations also going through. The standings now start with points earned in games between tied teams, not goal difference.
That change is the key to Turkey's position. They can still draw level on three points with Australia or Paraguay, but they have already lost to both, which leaves them below those teams on the head-to-head tiebreak.
World Cup 2002 at Group G
The clearest comparison comes from World Cup 2002, when Croatia and Ecuador both finished on three points in Group G. Croatia were placed ahead because goal difference came first then, even after losing their final group game 1-0 to Ecuador.
By the 2026 rules, Ecuador would rank ahead. That is the practical shift: a team can now end up with a better overall picture across the group but still sit behind the team it failed to beat in the head-to-head set.
Montella and Thursday in Los Angeles
Mauricio Pochettino's United States will finish top of Group D, and Vincenzo Montella will surely want his players to return home from this World Cup with something better than last place. The United States can still be caught by Australia or Paraguay on six points after the three games, but they cannot be overtaken on head-to-head. Turkey's problem is harsher: even a point total that matches Australia or Paraguay leaves them behind both.
That leaves one clear outcome before the match on Thursday in Los Angeles. Turkey are already headed to the bottom of Group D, and the new table-break order is the reason.
