Mexico are through as group winners in the 2026 World Cup qualifying groups, and the updated picture leaves several other teams needing specific results to reach the knockout phase. Five points will be enough for third-place qualification, which keeps a narrow path open for sides still sitting below that mark.
Mexico, South Korea and Group C
Mexico will face a third-placed team from Group C, Group E, Group F, Group H or Group I. That gives them a place in the last 32, while the next questions now sit lower in the standings.
Mexico beat South Korea head-to-head, so Mexico would finish top if South Korea matched their points total. South Korea would guarantee qualification with a win or draw against South Africa, while Mexico v Czechia and South Africa v South Korea decide the remaining places in that section of the table.
Third-place table pressure
The third-place race is the tightest part of the table. Sweden had 3 points, a 6-6 record and 0 goal difference after two games; Scotland also had 3 points with a 1-1 record and 0 goal difference. Croatia had 3 points and a 3-4 record with minus-1 goal difference, while Algeria and Paraguay both had 3 points and a 2-4 record with minus-2 goal difference.
Below them, Cape Verde and Belgium had 2 points apiece, then Czechia, DR Congo, Ecuador and Bosnia and Herzegovina each had 1 point, with Bosnia and Herzegovina the furthest back at 2-5 and minus-3 goal difference after two games. Senegal were on 0 points, with a 3-6 record and minus-3 goal difference.
Canada, Switzerland, Brazil and Morocco
Canada would guarantee qualification with a draw or win against Switzerland, while Switzerland would guarantee qualification with a win or a draw against Canada. Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar can still aim for a thumping victory and a shot at one of the third-placed qualification places, but their margin for error is gone.
Brazil would guarantee qualification with a draw or win against Scotland, and Morocco would guarantee qualification with a draw or win against Haiti. The draw-or-win routes mean the groups still have live stakes even as the top of the table starts to settle.
The remaining fixtures are Switzerland v Canada and Bosnia and Herzegovina v Qatar, and the exact eight third-placed sides for the last 32 will only emerge once those results are in.
