BTC price was $59,368.07, and Markus Thielen said the current bear market likely has further downside before it runs its course. He said bitcoin could break below $60,000 and reach $55,000 before carving out the low of this cycle.
Thielen's $55,000 target
$55,000 is the level Thielen put in front of traders, with the move framed as a test of whether bitcoin can absorb another leg lower before the cycle low forms. For holders, that means the market still has room to price in a deeper drawdown before any durable floor appears.
Three separate indicators point to a potential low between late August and October, Thielen said. One model tracking the rate of change in global liquidity identified a buying opportunity in March and an exit signal in April, which gives the call a defined technical backdrop rather than a broad bearish stance.
Liquidity, seasonality, Fed
September has historically been a weak month for bitcoin, while October has often been stronger, according to Thielen's seasonal reading. The timing also lines up with Federal Reserve meetings in September and October, the U.S. midterm elections, and the Treasury Department's quarterly refinancing announcement in early November.
The combination leaves bitcoin traders with a narrow window to judge whether the next move is a break below $60,000 or a turn before the late-August-to-October low Thielen expects. "The implication is patience now, attention in late August."
May volumes and RWA
Combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% in May to $4.41T, their lowest level since September 2024, a sign that trading activity cooled even as price action stayed near the current bear-market range. At the same time, RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% to a new all-time high, showing that some corners of the market kept expanding while the broader tape softened.
That mix matters for bitcoin traders because it separates a general slowdown in exchange activity from the pockets of leverage still drawing volume. If the liquidity model keeps working as it did in March and April, the late-August-to-October window becomes the point where the market either finds support or extends lower into $55,000.
