Bosnia and Herzegovina beat Qatar 3-1 in Seattle on Wednesday and moved to the brink of the World Cup last 32, which keeps the answer to who will Mexico play in the Round of 32 tied to the same bracket path: the United States. The projection model has Bosnia and Herzegovina at greater than 99 per cent to finish among the eight best third-placed sides.
That leaves Bosnia and Herzegovina on course for San Francisco on Wednesday, July 1, where the projection model says the opponent would be the United States. Bosnia opened with a 1-1 draw against Canada, then took a heavy loss to Switzerland before closing group play with the win over Qatar.
Barbarez and the late push
Sergej Barbarez has already steered Bosnia and Herzegovina through a tense path, and this group finish fits the same pattern. The team was trailing in its play-off semi-final in Wales, equalised late, went through extra time and won on penalties. It then trailed again against Italy in the play-off final, equalised late, went through extra time and won on penalties.
That history matters because Bosnia and Herzegovina did not build its World Cup route on control. It kept finding a way back into matches, and the Qatar result extends that same profile into the tournament itself.
Esmir Bajraktarevic in Bosnia
Esmir Bajraktarevic adds another layer to the likely meeting with the United States. He was born in Appleton, Wisconsin, played for the USMNT against Slovenia in a January 2024 friendly and later declared for Bosnia. His parents are from Srebrenica, were refugees in Switzerland and emigrated to the United States in 2001.
So Bosnia and Herzegovina’s likely opponent is the United States even though Bajraktarevic once appeared for the USMNT. That is the awkward edge inside a matchup that the numbers now almost fully map out.
United States path in San Francisco
Edin Dzeko remains the other anchor. He has scored an international goal in 20 successive years, which gives Bosnia and Herzegovina a veteran reference point as the knockout stage comes into view.
The last missing step is whether the projection holds through the remaining group results. If it does, Bosnia and Herzegovina will go to San Francisco, and the United States will be waiting.
