The National Weather Service raised portions of Missouri and Kansas to a Level 3 out of 4 flash flood threat Thursday morning, and the storm tracker pattern is still covering about 700 miles across the Central U.S. Repeated tropical downpours are keeping millions of Americans in the Central and Southern U.S. on alert through the end of the workweek.
Missouri and Kansas face heavier rain
The upgrade puts parts of Missouri and Kansas into the highest risk area named in the forecast. Heavy rain across parts of southwestern Oklahoma already produced more than 3 inches in just over an hour, showing how fast the rainfall can stack up when storms keep moving over the same ground.
That is why the forecast is watching a corridor between Kansas and northern Oklahoma into Missouri so closely. A stationary front remains draped over southern Kansas and Missouri, and heavy downpours and thunderstorms are expected to form along and ahead of it before moving eastward by late afternoon.
700-mile flood threat in the Central U.S.
The broader flood setup still stretches 700 miles across the central region at Level 2 out of 4, with numerous shots of storms expected to move through the Central and Southern Plains into the afternoon on Thursday. Rain rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are possible, and that kind of repetition is what turns a wet day into a flash flood event.
Through early Friday, widespread rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected from Kansas into Missouri and southern Indiana, with localized pockets topping 3-plus inches. The main flood threat is expected to shift farther eastward into the Ohio Valley as Thursday progresses.
Drought meets heavy rain
There is a sharp contradiction in the forecast: many cities across the Central U.S. have been dealing with extreme drought, including parts of Arkansas, yet the same region is now under a fast-moving flash flood threat. The rain can help dry ground, but when it falls in repeated bursts at 1 to 2 inches per hour, it can overwhelm streets and streams before the ground has time to absorb it.
For people in Missouri and Kansas, the most urgent change is the upgraded risk level Thursday morning and the chance for more rounds of heavy rain through early Friday. The next step is the eastward shift into the Ohio Valley, where the flood threat is expected to move later as the front keeps organizing storms.
