Liberty vs Storm arrives on June 25 with the New York Liberty listed as 11.5-point favorites in Seattle. The number says the market expects New York to control the game, but Seattle’s recent cover rate gives the matchup more edge than its record suggests.
Jonquel Jones Sets The Tone
Jonquel Jones is the headliner for New York. The former MVP center is projected at 15.2 points, and she has already hit 19 of 41 attempts from 3-point range in June. That gives the Liberty a frontcourt option who can score inside or pull Seattle’s defense away from the lane.
That profile matters against Dominique Malonga, the Seattle center who has flashed real scoring volume in her last three games. She put up 28 points in one of them and 37 in another, and the matchup points toward a battle under the rim between two different kinds of pressure.
Seattle's Spread Pressure
Seattle enters at 3-15 with an 11-game skid, but the spread picture is less one-sided than the record. The Storm are 5-3 ATS over their last eight games, so they have stayed inside numbers more often than the standings line would suggest.
New York has not been a perfect betting favorite, either. The Liberty are 7-9 ATS as a favorite this season and 3-5 ATS as double-digit chalk, which puts the 11.5-point line in a range that has not always worked cleanly for them.
New York's Tuesday Win
New York arrives after beating Las Vegas on Tuesday, and the defensive shape from that game gives a useful clue for this one. The Liberty gave up 32 points in the paint while holding Las Vegas to 43% shooting, and A’ja Wilson was pushed toward the perimeter and finished with five assists.
That is the useful read for June 25: if New York can again steer the action away from easy interior looks, Malonga’s recent scoring bursts become harder to repeat. For Seattle, that leaves one basic test in the Emerald City — whether the Storm can stay inside the number long enough to turn their recent ATS form into something more than a cover trend.
