Senegal vs Iraq prediction tilted on one number: Opta gave Senegal a 56.62% chance of reaching the next round before kickoff in Toronto. Senegal needed to beat Iraq to move to three points and keep its World Cup qualification hopes alive.
Toronto Stadium Start
The match kicked off at Toronto Stadium at 8pm BST, 3pm EDT and 3pm local time, with Senegal and Iraq both naming 4-3-3 XIs. Senegal started Mory Diaw, Abdoulaye Seck, Ismail Jakobs, Krepin Diatta, Moussa Niakhate, Idrissa Gana Gueye, Lamine Camara, Habib Diarra, Sadio Mane, Ismaila Sarr and Ibrahim Mbaye.
Iraq’s line included Ahmed Basil, Rebin Sulaka, Akam Hashim, Mechas Doski, Frans Putros, Ibrahim Bayesh, Zidane Iqbal, Amir Alammari, Ali Jasim, Ahmed Qasem and Ali Alhamadi. Graham Arnold had already set the tone for Iraq’s campaign before the tournament, saying his team was “capable of doing something that will shock the world”.
Senegal's Three-Point Route
Senegal entered the match with no points after losses to France and Norway, and it sat outside the top 8 third-placed teams. A win over Iraq would have taken Senegal to three points and improved its goal difference from -3, the kind of swing that can pull a side back into the qualification picture.
That is why the 56.62% projection mattered more than a simple pre-match percentage. It reflected a route in which Senegal could still overtake other third-placed sides without needing a perfect run, but only if it handled Iraq first.
Graham Arnold And The Warning
Arnold’s line about being “capable of doing something that will shock the world” set an ambitious target for Iraq, but Senegal’s task stayed plain: win, collect three points and keep the door open. The World Cup table pressure sat entirely on Senegal at kickoff.
Whether Senegal actually beat Iraq and advanced is not stated in the source, but the setup was clear before the ball was kicked. Senegal were playing for survival, and the numbers left no room for anything softer than a win.
