Daniil Donchenko enters UFC Baku on Saturday as a -500 favorite against Theodor Berggren inside the National Gymnastics Arena. Donchenko is trying to stretch his UFC record to three straight wins, while Berggren arrives for his octagon debut.
Daniil Donchenko’s UFC run
Donchenko won his first two UFC bouts, a start that put him in position for a heavily favored matchup in UFC Baku. He stopped Matt Dixon in the first round in August on The Ultimate Fighter 33, then added wins over Rodrigo Sezinando and Alex Morono.
That run gives him the sharper résumé entering Saturday. The numbers behind the fight line are blunt: -500 on Donchenko and +360 on Berggren. In betting terms, the favorite is priced far shorter than the underdog, which usually reflects a market view that one side has the cleaner path to win.
Theodor Berggren in UFC Baku
Berggren comes in as the promotional debutant, but he has not been inactive. Before UFC Baku, he put together three wins and two losses in his last pro fights, including a two-fight win streak.
That record is the wrinkle in the matchup. Donchenko’s UFC experience is already built on two wins, while Berggren is stepping into the UFC for the first time with a recent run that suggests he brings some momentum, even if the market does not price him close to even.
National Gymnastics Arena matchup
The bout lands at UFC Baku inside the National Gymnastics Arena, and it gives Donchenko a chance to keep his UFC momentum moving in the same direction. For Berggren, it is an immediate test against a fighter who has already handled two UFC opponents.
For readers tracking the matchup, the practical takeaway is simple: Donchenko is expected to control the market and the spotlight, but Berggren’s recent form prevents this from being a routine debut assignment. Saturday’s fight will show whether the favorite’s UFC start translates again, or whether the debutant can turn his outside-UFC streak into something bigger at UFC Baku.
