Kaan Ofli enters UFC Baku as a +180 underdog against Javier Reyes, but the matchup is tighter than the line suggests because his grappling could force Reyes into repeated takedown defense. The featherweight bout is set for Saturday at the National Gymnastics Arena, where Ofli tries to turn a two-fight win streak into another UFC result.
Kaan Ofli at +180
The market has Reyes at -220, a number that puts the pressure on the favorite to keep the fight upright. Ofli’s path is built on a different base. He comes in with two wins in three octagon bouts, including victories over Ricardo Ramos and Yizha, after losing to Muhammad Naimov.
That run matters because it shows he has already handled UFC-level pace after a difficult turn in The Ultimate Fighter 32, where he lost to Mairon Santos in the final and still ended up signed by the UFC. He did not need a perfect tournament run to get here. He needed enough to stay in the mix, and the results since then have kept him there.
Javier Reyes brings power
Reyes arrives with a clean UFC entry of his own. He earned his contract with a first-round stoppage of Justice Torres on Dana White’s Contender Series last year, then carried that momentum into his octagon debut with a first-round finish of Douglas Silva de Andrade. Those two wins explain why the line leans his way.
Style is the point of the fight. Ofli is the better grappler and holds a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, while Reyes is the better and more powerful striker. BetMGM’s read goes straight to that split, with Anatoly Pimentel writing, "I predict a decision win for Ofli over Reyes, as he’s the better grappler, and I think he’ll be able to take him down several times during the fight."
Ofli’s takedowns vs Reyes
The same preview adds, "Even though Reyes is the better and more powerful striker, Ofli’s takedowns can easily nullify them." It also says, "The Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt credential of Ofli should be on full display against a striker like Reyes." That creates the central test for Saturday: whether Reyes can keep his feet under him long enough to make his power count.
There is still a complication for the underdog side. The preview says, "However, I think Reyes will survive Ofli’s submission attempts due to his durability and toughness, but will ultimately be defeated by decision." That leaves the fight hanging on one question for bettors and fight fans alike: can Reyes stay composed if Ofli keeps changing levels and forcing him backward for three rounds at UFC Baku?
