Siena Research Institute posted July 1, 2026 polling showing Republicans with razor-thin leads in Alaska, Iowa and Ohio as the race for the U.S. Senate tightens across six states. Don Levy said, "The fight for control of the U.S. Senate is on. Republicans hold razor thin leads in Alaska, Iowa and Ohio while in North Carolina, the former governor holds an early 7-point advantage".
Don Levy on six-state polling
Levy, the executive director of Siena Research Institute, said the poll covered six states and put all of them except North Carolina well within the margin of error. That leaves the leading numbers close enough that a small shift in support could change the picture quickly in Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.
The North Carolina result stands apart because the former governor’s 7-point lead is larger than the razor-thin margins in the other states. In practical terms, that means the same poll set is showing two different kinds of contests: three states where either side could move ahead with a modest change, and one where the leader has a clearer edge.
Alaska, Iowa and Ohio
The closest Senate races in the Siena findings are Alaska, Iowa and Ohio, where Republicans hold razor-thin leads. Those numbers place the states inside the range where polling movement can matter from one survey to the next, especially when the margin of error is tight.
Levy’s statement also ties the polling directly to the broader fight for Senate control. For readers following Alaska, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, Maine and Texas, the immediate takeaway is that these contests remain competitive enough that each new poll can reshape expectations without settling the outcome.
North Carolina's 7-point edge
North Carolina is the exception in the Siena set because the former governor’s 7-point advantage is not described the same way as the other states. That difference matters to readers tracking whether the Senate map is closing in one direction or staying wide open across multiple races.
Don Levy is available starting at 8:30 AM ET Wednesday, July 1st, to discuss the findings, and that leaves the polling snapshot itself as the main public reference point for now. The question readers are left with is which candidates are leading in Alaska, Iowa and Ohio, and who the unnamed former governor is in North Carolina.
