France stayed top of the Belgium World Cup ranking after a 3-0 win over Sweden, and the gap at the top held firm after Tuesday’s World Cup matches. The result kept France first in The Athletic’s rankings and left them with a 29 per cent projected chance of winning the World Cup.
That projection is built on the live rankings rather than reputation. France’s position was strengthened by another convincing result, while Kylian Mbappe reached six goals in the tournament and Michael Olise moved to five assists and counting.
Mbappe and Olise drive France
Mbappe’s scoring pace is the cleanest explanation for France’s place at the top. Six goals in one tournament puts him in direct range of the Golden Boot race, while Olise’s five assists show how much of France’s attack is running through him as well.
France were also the highest-scoring team at the tournament after beating Sweden. That kind of output is what keeps them near the front of a ranking model that weighs results and scoring power, not just a single win total.
Group J form carries over
The surge did not start against Sweden. France had already won three consecutive Group J matches to reach the knockout stages, which gave them a base the rankings could keep rewarding once the next round began.
Their run has put them on track to reach their third consecutive World Cup final. That is the level the ranking reflects now: a team winning cleanly, scoring regularly and moving through the bracket without giving the model much reason to drop them.
Mexico, Norway and Brazil
France were not the only team to move through Tuesday’s action. Mexico beat Ecuador to reach the last 16, Norway defeated the Ivory Coast, and Brazil beat Japan after Gabriel Martinelli scored the added-time winner.
Brazil’s result mattered because it came after a draw with Morocco had raised concerns about their level. Gabriel and Carlo Ancelotti were part of that Brazil picture, but the Japan win settled the immediate question and kept Brazil moving after a wobble.
The wider rankings still leave France in front, with the live projection giving them 29 per cent. The round of 32 was still in progress, with England and the United States due to play their last-32 games on Wednesday, so the table can still shift again — but for now France keep the lead and the clearest path among the teams already through.
