Latvian intelligence said on Monday that Russia is preparing military provocations against the Baltic states or Poland, a warning that adds a fresh edge to U.s. Warnings Russia Poland Border. The assessment says any move would fall well short of a full-scale attack, but it points to pressure on Nato’s eastern flank before the alliance meets in Ankara, Turkey, this month.
Latvia’s Monday warning
Latvian intelligence said, “We see indications that Russia is preparing military provocations against the Baltic countries or Poland.” The same assessment said Russia was not capable of opening a second front, even as it pointed to hybrid attacks, such as missiles, drones or other actions designed to send a signal: stop supporting Ukraine, or you will have your own problems.
That language is narrower than a warning of invasion, but it still gives Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland a practical reason to plan for disruption below the threshold of war. For those countries, the risk is not only a direct strike; it is also a test of readiness, coordination and political resolve if Russia chooses pressure that is deniable or limited.
Donald Tusk in Gdansk
On Thursday night, Donald Tusk said after the Eastern Flank summit in Gdansk that “We also share, without exception, the opinion that the situation is very unstable and various types of escalation can be expected in the coming weeks and months,” and that “We will want to prepare as a group of countries directly exposed to this risk.” Poland’s prime minister put the warning in collective terms, with the exposed states expected to plan together rather than separately.
His remarks followed a week in which a senior political source from a second Nato member said intelligence was being picked up that Vladimir Putin was planning something against the Baltic states, with the source saying Putin might be willing to test US support for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. That is the operational question now: whether Moscow is looking for a move that probes alliance backing without triggering the kind of response a full-scale attack would bring.
Nato and Moscow pressure
Keir Giles of Chatham House said, “Moscow will be looking for ways to disrupt the current trend, through horizontal escalation [spreading the conflict to other countries] or doing something elsewhere. We should not expect Russia to passively lose.” In practice, horizontal escalation means widening pressure to other fronts or locations to force attention away from Ukraine without needing a new conventional campaign.
The warning lands at a moment when Russia faces pressure from Ukraine’s campaign of long-range attacks on targets near Moscow and St Petersburg, while Russia’s advance in Ukraine has stalled. Since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there have also been several waves of Russian sabotage and provocative activity, which gives the latest intelligence more weight than a routine threat bulletin.
Nato will hold its annual summit in Ankara, Turkey, this month amid uncertainty about US commitment to the alliance. On Wednesday, Donald Trump said he felt “let down” by European allies who did not allow the US air force to bomb Iran from airfields in their countries, a remark that will sharpen attention on how firmly the US stands behind Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland if Russia chooses a provocation rather than an overt assault.
