Tamitha Skov said more than five solar storms are headed toward Earth after the sun fired 10 M-class solar flares in 24 hours, and that raises northern lights chances for the July 4 weekend. She said at least three of the storms offer "good chances" for aurora displays.
The first storm could reach Earth before 8 a.m. EDT on July 3, Skov said in a recent post on X. NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center separately said at least one CME from July 1 appears to have an Earth-directed component, while NOAA kept a forecast for moderate G2 geomagnetic storm conditions around 8-11 p.m. EDT tonight.
Tamitha Skov on X
Skov described the activity as a "Machine-gun sun" after the sun unleashed an X1.1 solar flare on June 30 and then sent off 10 M-class flares over the next 24 hours. Her post also said "NOAA and NASA model predictions do not show all the storms yet," a sign that the incoming CMEs are still being sorted out one by one.
That leaves the forecast tied to how many of the CMEs stay aimed at Earth and how they line up with Earth's magnetic field when they arrive. Skov said G2 or stronger geomagnetic storm conditions are possible if the incoming CMEs carry a favorable magnetic orientation.
NOAA forecast for July 3
NOAA said the forecast is primarily driven by the CME launched during the June 30 X1.1 flare, while additional CMEs from the July 1 eruptions are still being analyzed. NOAA's latest outlook calls for minor G1 storm conditions for much of July 3, with moderate G2 conditions around 8-11 p.m. EDT tonight.
For readers in the northern U.S., the practical window is the dark hours around the July 4 weekend, especially if skies are clear. Aurora could be visible across parts of New York and Idaho, though lingering twilight may make the display harder to spot because nights remain short in the northern hemisphere.
New York and Idaho
If the CMEs keep their Earth-directed path, the aurora could push farther south than usual and reach parts of the U.S. that do not always get a northern lights show. NOAA's aurora forecast points to a broader viewing zone, but the brightness and reach will depend on which CMEs arrive first and how strongly they interact with Earth.
