XOM stock is tied to ExxonMobil’s estimated $15.9 billion in adjusted net income for the second quarter, lifted by crude oil prices that hit a four-year high. The gap between oil and pump prices is now in the political spotlight, with President Donald Trump demanding gasoline fall to $2.25-$2.50 per gallon immediately.
ExxonMobil's $15.9 billion estimate
$15.9 billion is the adjusted net income ExxonMobil is expected to post for the second quarter, according to LSEG. That would put the April to June quarter among the strongest for Big Oil since 2022, when earnings last reached that level on $100-a-barrel oil and above.
Tripling is the scale analysts expect for ExxonMobil and Chevron earnings versus the first quarter. Crude oil’s jump to a four-year high in the second quarter did the work, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz helped drive the move.
Patrick De Haan's $3.755 reading
$3.755 per gallon was the U.S. national average gasoline price on the 4th of July, Patrick De Haan said. That was $0.81 below the May peak and still $0.65 above the same point last year, which shows how much of the crude rally has already fed through to drivers, even after prices eased from the $4.50 a gallon high in early May.
Immediate pressure is still coming from President Donald Trump, who demanded that U.S. gasoline prices drop to $2.25-$2.50 per gallon immediately and ordered the Justice Department to investigate possible price gouging at the pump. The DOJ then urged state law enforcers to join the inquiry into alleged illegal price-gouging practices.
Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizes
Further declines in gasoline prices are expected as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz begins to normalize, but the path is slower than the crude move that lifted ExxonMobil’s earnings outlook. For investors, the next read-through is whether the second-quarter print keeps ExxonMobil and Chevron near the top of the Big Oil profit cycle, or whether easing fuel prices start to cool that momentum first.
