NVIDIA share price is down 15% from its peak in May, even as projected revenue keeps rising. Investors are now paying less per dollar of projected profit than they do for the typical large American company.
That gap matters because the move is not just a pullback in one stock. It is a reset in how the market values Nvidia’s role in AI while memory-chip makers capture more of the spending tied to the same buildout.
Wayne Nelms on DRAM
Wayne Nelms, Ornn co-founder and CTO, said the split between compute and memory comes down to supply and demand. “More GPU and accelerator players are entering the market. Everyone wants to make their own silicon, but no one is making their own DRAM,” he said.
Since 2023, Datatrack has shown DRAM rising sharply, and over the past year high-bandwidth memory chip prices increased tenfold. That helped push Micron nearly tripling in value over the same period while Nvidia’s stock moved the other way.
H100 pricing after May
In May, the spot price for an hour of time on an Nvidia H100 GPU peaked around $3.20 an hour, then steadily declined. The same period also saw Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and OpenAI launch their own custom processors to lessen dependence on Nvidia.
The result is a market where compute prices are easing while memory remains tight. Nvidia’s CUDA programming platform still helped make Nvidia GPUs the default engine for AI research, but the mix of gains has shifted toward the parts of the stack that are harder to source.
S&P average versus Nvidia
Nvidia now trades cheaper than the S&P average on expected earnings, which means the market is assigning a lower multiple to its projected profit than to the typical large American company. For shareholders, that is the clearest sign that the premium once attached to Nvidia’s AI dominance has been cut back.
If compute pricing keeps sliding and DRAM stays scarce, the market is likely to keep rewarding the bottleneck, not the chip that made the bottleneck visible. The unanswered piece is how long that gap between Nvidia’s valuation and the rest of the AI trade will stay open.
