The FOX Forecast Center is watching Tropical development In Florida Gulf later this weekend as multiple forecast models point to a broad area of storms in the eastern Gulf. The potential development window is early next week, and the outlook currently carries a low chance of organization through next Wednesday.
Britta Merwin on the trend
FOX Weather meteorologist Britta Merwin said this type of tropical development is "very common for this time of year." She added, "The trend is slightly increasing, not enough to give us big red flags, but the fuel source is there" as warm Gulf waters remain above average.
Warm Gulf, hostile Atlantic
The FOX Forecast Center said a weakening cold front could leave behind an area of stormy weather over the Gulf sometime this weekend, and that setup could allow a broad area of low pressure to spin up over the warm water. Bryan Norcross said there is still a chance a tropical system could develop.
That chance exists in a season that has been quiet so far. Tropical Storm Arthur formed along the Texas coast on June 17 and remains the year's only named storm thus far, while hostile winds, Saharan dust, and average water temperatures are making the open Atlantic less favorable for development.
FOX Forecast Center updates
The FOX Forecast Center said a system is considered tropical when well-organized thunderstorms rotate around a distinct center over warm water. Water temperatures remain above average in the Gulf and off the Southeast coast, so the next few forecast updates will show whether the broad area of storms organizes further. The FOX Forecast Center said, "Outside of keeping an eye on the forecast updates over the next few days, there is no immediate cause for concern."
