Atlantic hurricane season brought a new rain threat to Florida’s Gulf Coast on Friday, when the National Hurricane Center kept a 30% chance that a Gulf disturbance could become a tropical cyclone over seven days. The system was also given a 10% chance of forming over 48 hours. Even if it never earns the name Bertha, forecasters said the rain will still fall.
As much as 7 inches of rain is possible into Monday in the Tampa Bay area, with 2 to 3 inches more widespread there. Areas from Panama City through Cedar Key may get up to 3 inches into Monday, and meteorologists said the heaviest bands could shift with the system’s track.
Tampa Bay NWS office
Austen Flannery, a meteorologist with the Tampa Bay NWS office, said the area could see urban flooding because storm water systems can only handle so much water each hour. He also said, “Is it possible to see 10 inches over seven days, sure.”
Flannery said, “Our soils can handle a lot of water so there’s not a super big concern there.” He added, “There could be some urban flooding because there is only so much capacity that storm water systems can handle per hour but there will be breaks in the rain and if we get those breaks the threat will remain pretty low.”
National Hurricane Center
The National Hurricane Center highlighted an oval-shaped region stretching from coastal Louisiana through North Florida on Friday, July 17. Wright Dobbs, a NWS meteorologist in Tallahassee, said, “That’s one thing I want to bring attention to. There is still a lot of uncertainty with this system.”
Dobbs said, “If it’s closer to shore or farther north, that could bring some heavier rainfall amounts to North Florida and the Big Bend.” That means the rainfall axis could settle north of Tampa Bay if the disturbance stays nearer the coast or tracks farther inland.
Florida drought and rain
A U.S. Drought Monitor report issued July 16 showed 16% of Florida in extreme drought and nearly 60% in moderate to severe drought. Only 7.5% of Florida had no drought in the report, and the dampening effect of the coming rain may be welcome in dry ground even as it raises flooding concern in the hardest-hit neighborhoods.
The Jacksonville-based meteorologists said the deep moist airmass would spread over North Florida through the weekend, with showers and thunderstorms expected every day. The Miami NWS said South Florida would see higher rain chances and an increased potential for strong thunderstorms packing damaging wind gusts, while temperatures should stay in the 90s each day.
