Elon Musk and SpaceX short sellers are looking at a 36% slide from SpaceX’s third-day peak. The stock now trades at $129 per share, down from around $202, even after the company’s June 12 listing made it the largest initial public offering in U.S. history by market value. For investors in SpaceX, the question is no longer the first-day pop. It is how much of the post-IPO gain can hold.
SpaceX at $129 After $202 Peak
$129 per share is where SpaceX sits now after touching about $202 on its third trading day. That move leaves the stock 36% below its high and roughly 19% above its $135 IPO price, since it closed just shy of $161 on day one. The math shows a stock that moved fast in both directions before the market had much time to judge its longer path.
$1.8 trillion was the company’s value at the listing price, making the June 12 debut the largest initial public offering in U.S. history as measured by market value. SpaceX had barely begun public trading before investors were asked to price a business already carrying an enormous capitalization. The first-day close near $161, followed by the third-day peak, set up the current pullback from a very high base.
10 Largest U.S. IPOs
10 largest U.S. IPOs in the last decade provide the historical comparison SpaceX now faces. Their median stock fell 17% from the IPO price during the first year on the public market, which would put SpaceX at $112 per share by June 2027 if it follows that pattern. From today’s $129, that implies 13% downside and turns a $10,000 position into $8,820.
25% is the other median move that matters. Among those same large offerings, the median stock dropped that much at some point during the first year, which would take SpaceX to $101 per share before June 2027. That would mean 20% downside from the current price and leave an investor with a paper loss that is hard to miss even before the business story changes again.
SpaceX, Starlink and AI
$28.5 trillion is SpaceX’s stated addressable market, including $26.5 trillion tied to AI products and services. The company says its reusable rocket architecture gives it a cost and launch-frequency edge, helped it build Starlink, and could eventually support orbital data centers. But those data centers will not launch until 2028 at the earliest, while the stock already trades at 88 times sales.
62 times sales is the multiple on Palantir Technologies, which leaves SpaceX 40% more expensive on that measure. That gap matters because the market is paying up for a story that is still years away from one of its most ambitious products. Investors in SpaceX now have to decide whether a $129 share price already reflects enough of the future, or whether the IPO premium still has room to compress.
