FanDuel’s Thursday MLB NRFI picks point to two early innings where the numbers suggest a low-scoring start, and Gavin Williams stands out as the headline arm. When a pitcher is averaging nearly 11 strikeouts per nine innings, the first inning becomes a very different kind of betting market.
NRFI means No Run First Inning, while the opposite is YRFI. It is a simple question: will either team score in the opening frame? For bettors looking at that market, the most useful clues are first-inning ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, team first-inning batting average, and on-base percentage.
Williams vs. Bradley is the striking matchup
At 1:11 p.m. ET on Thursday, July 23, 2026, Gavin Williams was scheduled to face Taj Bradley. Williams owned one of the highest strikeout rates among American League starters and was averaging nearly 11 strikeouts per nine innings, which is exactly the sort of profile that can shut down a first inning before it gets started.
His numbers were not spotless, with a 4.58 ERA, a 7.1% walk rate, 59 innings, a 1.31 WHIP and 18 walks. But the strikeout ability is the key piece for NRFI bettors. A pitcher who can miss bats reduces the chance of quick traffic, and quick traffic is usually what turns a first inning into a YRFI.
Pfaadt and McGreevy offer another NRFI path
The second recommended play came later, at 5:16 p.m. ET, when Brandon Pfaadt was set to face Michael McGreevy. That matchup also fits the NRFI profile because it leans on starting-pitcher form rather than hoping for a slow offensive start from either lineup.
One side of that equation is Pfaadt, who brought a 2.92 ERA across 108 innings, along with 71 strikeouts and a.236 opponent batting average. He was also coming off a fifth consecutive quality start, which only strengthens the case that the first inning could stay quiet. If a starter is limiting contact and keeping hitters off balance, NRFI becomes a much more attractive position.
Why the first inning matters
The appeal of NRFI is that it strips the game down to the opening battle between starter and lineup. A strong first-inning ERA matters. So does WHIP. So does strikeout rate. If the pitchers are sharp and the top of the order is not producing strong on-base numbers, the early run expectancy drops quickly.
That is why these FanDuel Sportsbook picks focus on pitcher traits first and everything else second. On Thursday, the balance of power in both games appeared to sit with the arms, not the bats. For bettors, that is usually the clearest reason to back A NRFI rather than A YRFI.
