Donald Trump 2026 midterm polling starts with an 11-point Democratic edge: Emerson College Polling found Democrats ahead of Republicans 53% to 42% among likely 2026 voters in its July 2026 national survey. The result gives Democrats a clear lead on the generic congressional ballot while Trump’s job approval sits at 39% and his disapproval rating rises to 57%.
Spencer Kimball and women voters
Spencer Kimball said women are driving that margin. His explanation was blunt: “Driving the Democrats’ significant lead on the ballot are women voters, who break for the Democratic candidate by a 27-point margin, 56% to 39%, while men are more split: 49% support the Democrat and 44% the Republican,”
That split is the most useful detail in the survey because it shows where the Democratic lead is coming from, not just how large it is. Women are giving Democrats a strong cushion, while men are closer but still edge toward the Democrat.
President Trump and Republicans
Trump’s 39% approval rating sits alongside the 53% to 42% ballot gap, a combination that leaves Republicans with work to do before the 2026 campaign fully hardens. The survey also tested Republican options and found voters split between JD Vance at 39% and Marco Rubio at 38%.
Ron DeSantis drew 5%, Donald Trump Jr. drew 5%, and 9% were undecided on that ballot test. That suggests the Republican field is still unsettled even as the generic ballot already leans against the party.
Emerson College Polling and 2026
The July 2026 reading is a snapshot, not a final verdict, but it puts Democrats in a stronger position than Republicans at this point in the cycle. Emerson College Polling also found 61% of voters thought the United States was spending too much on aid to Israel, while 63% opposed data centers being built in or near their community.
Whether the 11-point Democratic lead holds as the 2026 midterm campaign develops is the part this survey does not answer. For now, the numbers show Democrats leading, women widening the gap, and Trump still below majority approval as Republicans search for a cleaner path back into the race.
