STX stock is heading into Tuesday's earnings report with traders pricing in a move of as much as 12% in either direction by the end of the week. At Monday midday levels, that range points to a rebound above $900 or a drop to around $720.
Seagate and Western Digital
Seagate has tripled in value since the start of the year, but it has also slipped roughly 30% from its highs last month amid a broader pullback in the AI trade. That split-screen move leaves the stock at an awkward point: far above where it began the year, yet well below its recent peak.
Morgan Stanley said on Monday it expects Seagate and Western Digital to top Street estimates and raise their outlooks. The firm also said both companies should benefit from strong demand for their hardware and higher prices.
Visible Alpha and Seagate
Visible Alpha estimates call for Seagate to report adjusted earnings per share of $5.12 on revenue of $3.5 billion for the fiscal fourth quarter. Those figures come as the stock sits under a large implied move, which is what options traders are signaling into the report after the closing bell Tuesday.
Of the six analysts with current ratings surveyed by Visible Alpha, five recommend buying Seagate stock and one has a neutral rating. The average price target is around $992, a level that implies more than 20% upside from the stock's recent level.
For shareholders, the setup is simple: the market is not pricing a quiet reaction. By the end of the week, Seagate will either have justified the rally with results and guidance strong enough to keep the stock near the upper end of that implied band, or it will have given back more of the year-to-date gain. Whether the numbers can clear that bar is the part Tuesday will answer.
