Voting has begun in the Manchester mayoral election to choose Andy Burnham’s successor, with more than 2 million people eligible to decide who runs Greater Manchester. Labour’s Bev Craig, the leader of Manchester city council, is expected to win comfortably.
The contest is being held under the supplementary voting system, which gives voters a first choice and then a second choice if no one passes 50% on the first count. A More in Common poll of 1,000 voters gave Craig a 20 percentage point lead over Reform UK’s Sian Astley, and Labour is widely seen as having an advantage if the result goes to later preferences.
More in Common poll
The same poll put the Greens in third on 14 points, just ahead of the Conservatives. It also found Labour’s lead would stretch to 30 points if Reform UK finished second, showing why the order of the top two places matters before the count begins.
That polling snapshot was taken mostly before Andy Burnham became prime minister, so the opening day vote comes after a fast-moving sequence of events. Burnham won the Makerfield byelection on 18 June, which triggered the need to choose a new mayor for the authority that controls a £3bn annual budget and powers over housing, health, policing and transport.
Reform UK and May elections
Reform UK enters the race after a strong set of May elections results in Greater Manchester, including more than 100 seats across the area, all but one of the 25 seats up for grabs in Wigan in the May elections, and 18 out of 19 seats in Tameside in the May elections. That run is set against this week’s poll, which put Labour back on top of the polls for the first time since March 2025.
For voters, the immediate practical step is simple: cast a ballot while polling is open, then wait for the count under the supplementary voting system. Craig is the clear front-runner, but the final margin will turn on whether she finishes first outright or needs later preferences to settle the race.
