Emerson College Polling's SSRS midterm polls found Democrats ahead of Republicans by 11 points, 53% to 42%, among likely 2026 voters. The survey also showed President Trump's approval at 39% and disapproval at 57%.
Spencer Kimball said women were driving the Democratic edge, with women backing the Democrat 56% to 39%, a 27-point margin. Men were closer, with 49% supporting the Democrat and 44% the Republican.
Spencer Kimball on the gap
“Driving the Democrats’ significant lead on the ballot are women voters, who break for the Democratic candidate by a 27-point margin, 56% to 39%, while men are more split: 49% support the Democrat and 44% the Republican,” Kimball said. That leaves Republicans with enough support to stay competitive in the sample, but not enough to erase the overall Democratic lead.
The same survey placed Pete Buttigieg at 19% in the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination contest, with Gavin Newsom at 17%, Jon Ossoff and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 13% each, Kamala Harris at 8%, Andy Beshear at 7%, and Josh Shapiro at 5%. JB Pritzker received 3%, and 13% were undecided.
Jon Ossoff in July 2026
Kimball said, “Ossoff was added to the Democratic ballot test this month, and entered at 13%, driven by stronger support among men, at 18%, compared to 8% among women.” He added, “Newsom is strongest among women at 25%, compared to 8% of men. Similarly, Rep. Ocasio-Cortez’s support is higher among women, at 16%, compared to 9% of men. Buttigieg, on the other hand, has equal support among both men and women at 19%.”
On the Republican ballot test, voters were split between JD Vance at 39% and Marco Rubio at 38%, while Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump Jr. each drew 5%. Nine percent were undecided. The broad result is a Democratic edge with gender splits on both sides of the ballot tests, not a uniform shift across the full electorate.
July 2026 voter mood
The same poll found 61% of voters thought the United States was spending too much on aid to Israel, while 32% said the right amount and 7% said too little. Democrats at 85% and independents at 68% said too much, while 55% of Republicans said the right amount.
Support for data centers in or near a community sat at 27%, with 63% opposed and 10% neutral. Opposition had risen from 42% in December 2025, while support fell from 33% to 27%. On artificial intelligence, 63% said they were more concerned than excited, 14% said excited, and 22% said neither.
Kimball's poll also measured interest in the 2026 FIFA World Cup after it ended. Among voters, 27% were very interested, 39% somewhat interested, and 33% not interested at all. Compared with the week before the tournament, not-at-all interest fell from 45% to 33%, while very interested rose from 22% to 27%.
The question for the 2026 election cycle is whether that 11-point Democratic lead holds once campaigning narrows the field. For now, the numbers point to women as the main source of the advantage, with men still closer to a split.
