Labour Burnham bounce opinion polls now show Andy Burnham’s party back in front after two weeks in office, with a new MRP poll giving him a six-point rise in voting intention. Labour has regained the polling lead in two polls this week, but the latest survey still leaves it short of the majority it would need to govern alone.
MRP Shows 26% to 23%
The MRP poll of more than 10,000 voters put Labour on 26% and Reform UK on 23%. It projected 245 seats for Labour, 174 for Reform UK, 99 for the Conservatives and 67 for the Liberal Democrats.
That result points to a hung parliament, with a coalition probably needing at least three parties to reach a majority. Labour’s lead is real, but the seats projection keeps the arithmetic tight.
Progressives Return First
Dylan Spielman said: “The Andy Burnham bounce is real but not yet big enough to put Labour back on course for a majority. So far the recovery has mainly come from reuniting the progressive bloc.”
He added: “But Labour is making much less progress winning back Reform voters and Conservatives who are pivotal in marginal seats, and squeezed voters remain Labour’s weakest group. Sustaining the recovery will depend on Labour continuing to demonstrate that its cost-of-living agenda is delivering, and broadening its appeal beyond progressives.”
The poll showed that more than half of 2024 Labour voters who voted Green and Liberal Democrat in the May elections now say they would vote Labour again. Fewer than a fifth of 2024 Labour voters who voted Reform in May have returned.
North of England Gains
The recovery was strongest in the north of England, particularly the north-west and Yorkshire and Humber. It was minimal in Wales and Scotland, where Labour lost control of the Senedd for the first time in May.
Andy Burnham has spent his first two weeks as prime minister on bus fares, business rates, energy bill cuts, defence, Ukraine and devolution. On Wednesday, while speaking at Jewish Care in north London, One resident asked him if he was the local candidate and was amazed to learn there was yet again a new prime minister.
Both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats had been expecting a Labour surge. A Conservative official said Labour would overtake Reform within a fortnight of Burnham becoming prime minister, and said the two upward movers were Labour and the Conservatives, while Reform and the Greens were falling.
