Donald Trump approval ratings by state turned negative across every swing state in a Newsweek map published three months before the November 3 midterm elections. The Civiqs data, based on 120,580 responses from registered voters, left Republican candidates facing a familiar problem: Trump’s standing is not strong enough to guarantee lift in battlegrounds.
Brett Loyd, cofounder of the Independent Center, said Trump’s position was “pretty rough” and called it a “collapse among the middle third of the electorate.” He added that being underwater by double digits in major battlegrounds means GOP incumbents “can’t count on Trump to lift them across the finish line.”
Newsweek Map And Civiqs Data
Newsweek compared Trump’s approval rating on July 30, 2026 with where it stood on January 20, 2025, using Civiqs’ rolling online tracking poll. Net approval was calculated as approve minus disapprove, and the result showed a current net rating of -23. That put Trump 13 points worse off nationally than he was ahead of his first midterm election.
The state-by-state picture sharpened the same trend. Trump was underwater in every swing state, which gives Republican candidates in those places a harder starting point than a simple national number would suggest. Small shifts in battleground sentiment can matter more there than they do in states that already lean one way or the other.
Brett Loyd On GOP Incumbents
Loyd also said Democrats should not assume Trump’s weak standing will automatically flow to their side. He said Democrats “aren't automatically reaping the rewards” and added, “It's not an automatic green light for Democrats either.”
The White House pointed to Trump’s 2024 election victory as the clearest measure of public support, creating a direct contrast with the Civiqs numbers. That split leaves the same question for November 3: whether a president can still shape down-ballot races when his approval is underwater in every swing state.
Trump, Biden, And Midterm Comparisons
The Civiqs survey also places Trump’s numbers beside earlier midterm cycles. Ahead of the 2022 midterms, Joe Biden stood at 36 percent approval and 55 percent disapproval, for a net rating of -19. Ahead of the 2018 midterms, Trump was at 43 percent approval and 53 percent disapproval, or -10.
Trump’s current -23 net rating is worse than either of those comparison points. Younger voters and independents remain his weakest groups in the data, with 22 percent approval and 72 percent disapproval among voters aged 18 to 34, 29 percent approval and 63 percent disapproval among voters aged 35 to 49, and 28 percent approval with 64 percent disapproval among independents. Women disapproved by a 65-to-30 margin, while men were split at 53 percent disapprove to 42 percent approve. By the time voters reach November 3, that gap will be measured not in talking points but in House races decided one district at a time.
