Berkeley Earth said on July 23 that El Niño 2026 has a 90% chance of pushing tropical Pacific temperatures beyond anything recorded in about 150 years of observations. The forecast arrives after El Niño officially formed in June, and the World Meteorological Organization expects it to persist well into late 2026.
Michelle L'Heureux on the storm track
Michelle L'Heureux, a physical scientist at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said, “El Niño tends to increase the storm track over the southern tier of the United States, increasing the chances of above-average precipitation.” She added that the southward shift in the storm track leaves parts of the northern U.S. drier than normal and increases the likelihood of above-average temperatures.
That pattern is the part most readers will feel first. El Niño's most significant effects on U.S. weather are likely to emerge in the fall and peak during the winter, when a strong El Niño typically brings wetter and cooler-than-normal conditions from late fall through winter.
South, North and the Atlantic
The source says a strong El Niño often increases thunderstorm activity along the Gulf Coast and in the lower Mississippi and Tennessee valleys, while spring and summer wildfire risk tends to decrease across the Southeast. It also often brings wetter-than-normal conditions across parts of the Southwest, including the Great Basin and southern Rockies.
For readers farther north, the pattern runs the other way. Michelle L'Heureux said parts of the northern U.S. can turn drier than normal and warmer than average, while a strong El Niño generally brings a milder winter with below-normal snowfall across much of the region. The same setup also usually strengthens the subtropical jet stream during the fall and winter.
Steven DiMartino on hurricane wind shear
Steven DiMartino, chair of the American Meteorological Society's Board of Digital Meteorologists, said, “While you only need one hurricane to have significant impacts, a very strong El Niño produces significant wind shear in the tropical Atlantic.” He added, “That prevents most tropical waves from forming an” tropical storm. In practical terms, the forecast points to a quieter Atlantic hurricane season if El Niño remains strong enough to keep that wind shear in place.
The immediate takeaway for readers across the United States is not a single uniform weather outcome but a split pattern: wetter risk for the southern tier, drier and warmer conditions in parts of the North, and a possible drag on Atlantic storm formation. How severe those winter impacts become in specific states will depend on how strong El Niño stays as the season unfolds.
