Shannon Benton of the Senior Citizens’ League said Social Security 2027 COLA projections now point to a 3.6% increase, with the SSA due to set the official number on Wednesday, October 14, 2026. The estimate would shape benefits for retired workers, disability beneficiaries, survivor beneficiaries and SSI recipients before the first adjusted payments arrive.
Benton said, "One of the biggest wild cards in this year’s forecast has been inflation’s volatility". She added, "It started the year at 2.2%, then surged to 4.4% by May before falling back to 3.5% in June. That kind of instability can throw off forecasts, but our model is designed to avoid chasing every spike and dip, which has kept our predictions on a relatively steady course."
SSA and the CPI-W
The COLA is calculated from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W. The SSA compares July, August and September CPI-W data from the past and current years, then applies a positive percentage difference as the next year’s COLA. That puts the fall 2026 reading at the center of the 2027 adjustment.
Under that schedule, Social Security recipients would see their first adjusted payment in January 2027, while SSI beneficiaries’ increased checks would start on December 31, 2026. The projected 3.6% increase would follow the 2.8% rise the SSA announced in fall 2025, after retired workers received an average of $56 more per month in retirement benefits at the start of 2026.
Senior Citizens’ League forecast
The Senior Citizens’ League said the 3.6% projection would be the largest increase since fall 2022, when the SSA enacted an 8.7% COLA for benefits issued the following year. It would still trail the 14.3% increase the SSA enacted in 1981, the largest annual COLA on record. The SSA also enacted COLAs of 9.9% in 1980 and 11.2% in 1982.
The 3.6% estimate comes with a practical value for readers: it gives beneficiaries a working number months before the official announcement, which can help them plan around January 2027 Social Security payments and the late-December SSI changeover. For now, the next number that matters is the one the SSA sets on October 14, 2026.
